COMMENT
A stark warning has emerged from the Institute for the Faculty of Actuaries' Planetary Solvency report, published today, which projects that the global economy could face a 50% GDP loss between 2070 and 2090 without immediate policy action on climate risks. This follows yesterday's World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2025, which identified Extreme Weather Events as the foremost risk of the coming decade across all surveyed stakeholder groups.
Ajay Gambhir, Director of Systemic Risk Assessment at ASRA, responds to the news:
“I'm honoured to have contributed to this timely and critical report. Its core insight—that our siloed and reductionist approaches to assessing global risks are fundamentally inadequate for the reality of the challenges we face today and will face tomorrow—has profound implications for policy and business decision-making about the future.
“As world leaders prepare to meet in Davos on Monday, two things emerge clearly from this report that should infuse their discussions: we need a complete transformation in how we assess and respond to risk, moving from siloed to systemic approaches that recognize both human and ecological interdependence; and corporations and financial institutions must fundamentally reimagine how they assess and price risk. Failing to do so will not only leave critical blindspots in their decision-making but also serve to accelerate the gap between the threats their operations are exposed to and their capacity to handle them.
“Existing approaches to stress testing and scenario planning are no longer fit for purpose. We need new frameworks that can capture the full costs and consequences of business activities at planetary, regional, and local levels. The polycrisis we face demands more urgent and comprehensive action than is supported by current practice.”
- Ends
Based in the UK, Ajay Gambhir is available for additional comment and interview.
Short bio: Gambhir spent 17 years working on climate change in the UK Government and at Imperial College London. He helped shape the 2008 UK Climate Change Act and led the creation of the UK Climate Change Committee. At Imperial, his research focused on low-carbon pathways and innovation in energy technologies. He also advised on climate risks, served on the UK Just Transition Taskforce, and supported national strategies to reach net-zero by 2050.
Additional research: ASRA’s report, Facing Global Risks with Honest Hope, co-developed by a global network of 50+ transdisciplinary risk experts, underscores the urgent need for radical change in how we assess and respond to risk. The report outlines how critical capacity and capability gaps can be effectively tackled, creating the conditions for a healthy, resilient, and just future for everyone. Recommendations include governance reform, reorientation of finance, and inclusive participation of citizens in decision-making.